11th February 2016, 5:01 pm

Marie is getting married tomorrow, at an outdoor ceremony in the desert. In recent years, it has rained only 5 days each year.


Unfortunately, the weatherman has predicted rain for tomorrow. When it actually rains, the weatherman correctly forecasts rain 9090 of the time. When it doesn't rain, he incorrectly forecasts rain 1010 of the time.


What is the probability that it will rain on the day of Marie's wedding?